A word to the conventionally wise
It was a poor week for the conventionally wise. Virtually every article I have read about the Palestinian elections has described the result as "a shock". The vast majority of the commentariat have been caught flat-footed by Hamas’ thumping victory in last week’s poll. Am I alone in feeling that the result was no shock at all, that in fact it has been coming for a long time?
For those who take an interest in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, it took no great expertise to predict that the Islamists were in for a very good day at the polls. Consider Fatah’s divisions, its incompetence, its corruption. Consider Hamas’ record of honesty and social welfare provision. Consider the Gaza pull-out, which is easier to ascribe to Hamas’ bombs than Abbas’ negotiation - as there was no negotiation. And consider Israel which has continued to murder Palestinians and to steal their land. All good reasons for predicting a Hamas victory in last week’s poll.
And, as if to make the science of prediction even easier, just look at last year’s municipal elections, when Hamas made huge gains, not just in its Gaza stronghold, but also in the more secular West Bank. How, given all this, could any Middle East "expert" not have foreseen that Hamas would win in the legislative elections?
It seems to me that what we are witnessing is the collapse of so many castles in the sky. For the conventionally wise who expected victory for Fatah, and hence for the "peace" process, have been shown the chasm between their rhetoric and the reality of life in the Occupied Territories. It is a fact little reported in western media that living conditions in the West Bank and Gaza have deteriorated in the twelve years since Oslo. What’s more, "peace" has not meant an end to the settlement drive but rather its acceleration. Given this, why exactly should the Palestinian people endorse the failed tactics of "negotiation"?
None of what I am saying is overly-complicated, neither is it a secret. Yet the great and the good have missed all this because it doesn’t fit in with their mindless clichés about "cracking down on terror" and putting the peace process "back on track". Their head-in-the-clouds optimism has obscured their view of the real situation - that of one people occupying another, one people brutalising another. Oslo hasn’t changed this, in fact it has cemented the occupation. Hence the rise of Hamas
However, it would be wrong to equate predicting the triumph of Hamas with welcoming it. It saddens me to see religious fundamentalists win elections anywhere in the world. I would rather that the Palestinian people had endorsed the non-violent resistance espoused by Mustafa Barghouti, than the failed policies of Fatah, or the suicide bombs of Hamas. But I was never naïve enough to think that this would actually happen.
I do not choose who represents the Palestinians any more than Ehud Olmert, or Angela Merkel, or Tony Blair, but I do respect their right to choose. The governments of the EU and the US have their rights too. As democracies, they can refuse to meet with Hamas ministers, or starve the Palestinian Authority of money. They are under no moral obligation to deal with any government purely because it has been endorsed by its people. However, to ostracise Hamas is flawed, both morally and politically.
To proclaim that "we do not talk to terrorists" is all fine and well, but such a position requires consistency. To use just the most obvious example, the British government negotiates all the time with loyalist and republican paramilitaries. Why then should it not talk to Hamas? Is the blood of Irish innocents worth less than the blood of Israeli innocents?
If the governments of the so-called civilised west recoil from talking to those who kill, then they should break off all contacts with Tel Aviv, recall their ambassadors and impose sanctions on Israel. If morality is mere mathematics, then Israel, which has caused infinitely more bloodshed than Hamas, must be considered more untouchable.
Politically too, it would be a mistake to blockade a new Hamas-led government in the Occupied Territories. Experience, to say nothing of rudimentary common sense, suggests that the imposition of economic sanctions would only cement the Islamists’ hold over Palestinian society. Faced by a hostile world, the people would turn in ever greater numbers to Hamas. This is obvious - even to those who couldn’t see Hamas’ victory coming in the first place.