All of a sudden, they've realised that the IRA does some very nasty things.
As we approach the tenth anniversary of the first IRA ceasefire, it’s easy to forget just how much things have changed over the past decade of relative peace. In particular the fortunes of Sinn Fein (SF) have improved dramatically in this period. It is strange to recall that, not so very long ago, the party was extremely isolated and unpopular. Back then, with their stablemates still at “war” (i.e. shooting people in their beds and blowing up high streets), SF was about as popular as George Bush at San Francisco City Hall.
The party had no MPs, no MEPs and no TDs. In the North their support had shrivelled to the “bullet-proof” 10% who could stomach IRA violence. In the South they received about 2% in national polls. Their voices were banned from the airwaves north and south and no other political party engaged them in open debate. They were considered beyond the pale of “civilised” politics in both parts of Ireland.
Fast forward ten years and all is changed, changed utterly. The drastic reduction in IRA violence since 1994 has helped SF surge forward at the polls. The party now has 4 MPs, 5 TDs and 24 MLAs. They have held the mayoralty in Derry and Belfast. Come June’s European elections they will probably win a seat each in the North and the South.
They have surpassed the SDLP as the voice of northern nationalism for at least the next decade and are emerging as a strong voice in the South also. Gerry Adams, once thought of by many Irish as little short of the devil, is now the second most popular party leader in the South. Most of all, from a position of abject isolation ten years ago they are now, in their own typically bashful words, the “pivot” of the peace process.
As I noted earlier, IRA violence has reduced dramatically but it has not disappeared altogether. Although on ceasefire against the “Brits” and the “Huns”, their “housekeeping” within the nationalist community continues as ever. Dissidents and drug-dealers are still being murdered. Petty criminals are still being subjected to street justice. Members of the SDLP continue to be attacked and intimidated. The republican movement may have come a long way but there is undoubtedly still a long way yet to go.
The fact that the IRA remains active was demonstrated in Belfast last Friday when four of its members abducted dissident republican Bobby Tohill. The four were quickly caught by police and legal proceedings are now underway. In the court of public opinion though, the IRA has already been convicted. Last Friday’s events seriously undermined the talks process at Stormont. Unionists, while of course ignoring loyalist violence, have called for SF to be expelled from the negotiations.
This kind of response is par for the course after every IRA attack. What is more unusual however has been the reaction of parties in the South. Justice Minister Michael McDowell, fast becoming a bogey-man of Cromwellian proportions in republican circles, accused SF of “vomit-making” hypocrisy. Feelings on the opposition benches are running equally high. For the political elite in Dublin the message to republicans is clear – the gloves are off.
But why? As I outlined earlier, Friday’s attack, however brutal, was nothing new. The IRA has been killing and wounding dissident republicans for decades, ceasefire or no. Sice 1994 these attacks have seldom met with such ferocious condemnation in Dublin. What’s new is not IRA violence but SF electoral success. At the 2002 Dail elections the party increased its number of TDs from one to five. They look set fair to take a Euro seat in Dublin and council seats nationwide in June.
Several factors are propelling this upward momentum. The party sets itself up as a radical alternative to the corrupt-ridden establishment. For the young, with less memory of IRA barbarity, voting SF is seen as a good way of sticking two fingers up to The Man. Furthermore, SF has worked hard on the ground, using their formidable organisation and funding to win over hearts and minds.
They have also tapped into the long-standing “sneaking regarder” tendency. Some in the South have always desired the cache of supporting a “revolutionary” party without having to excuse the crimes which said revolutionaries have committed. Those politicians with a “whiff of cordite” have always had a niche in certain areas. In short, some voters in the South have always been SF sympathisers but have felt compelled not to vote for them because of IRA violence.
The southern parties, most of all Fianna Fail, have finally woken up to the threat of SF. Hence this week’s “outrage” about the Tohill abduction. To a sceptical electorate the Dublin parties say: “OK, we’re corrupt but at least we’re not thugs like them.” This is fine as far as it goes; stealing lives is of course much worse than stealing money.
However let's not forget that this is the same IRA which has killed and maimed dozens over the past ten years, mostly to the sound of very muffled southern criticism. Only when the victims of such attacks were southerners, as with the murder of Garda Jerry McCabe in 1997, have the Dublin parties spoken out loudly. On other occassions they have pulled their punches out of deference for a peace process which has unfortunately always been based on the understanding that the IRA is free to kill and maim within nationalist areas.
This new found outrage is not only hypocritical, it's also limited tactically. The southern parties must address SF’s rise in a more whole-hearted manner. As well as pointing out SF's fascist tendencies, the Dublin parties must up their own game. Work hard on the ground, sharpen up PR and, for God’s sake, put down the brown paper envelopes – these are the keys to electoral success. Faced with a powerful new opponent, the southern parties must concentrate on smartening up their act rather than turning on the tap of artificial outrage.