Gerry Adams is fond of predicting that Ireland will be reunited by the year 2016, in time for the centenary celebrations of the Easter Rising. One should be cautious of his words, since he uses the alleged imminence of the end of partition as justification for abandoning so much of his ideological baggage. In any case, the Provos have a rather poor record when it comes to prediction. It was the IRA after all which claimed that Ireland would be “free in 1973” and which proclaimed 1975 to be “the year of victory”.
Nevertheless I am growing increasingly hopeful that the country can be reunified, if not by 2016, then perhaps five years later. Certainly, I would very much hope that there would be only one Ireland when I come to celebrate my fiftieth birthday (the 21st of May 2029, mark it in your diaries).
My optimism is based principally on the relative lack of violence since 1994 which has allowed people to look again at old attitudes and mindsets. One of the changes brought about since the first ceasefires is the near universal acceptance within nationalist Ireland of the consent principle, i.e. the idea that Ireland can only be reunited if the majority in the north wish so.
While this means that partition could be ended by a vote of 50%+1, it seems to me to be much more preferable if there was more than a bare majority for unity, i.e. if the concept could attract significant Protestant support.
For those who share my view that Ireland should be re-united, the key to success is to persuade Protestants that unification is no threat to them, in fact that it is in their best interests. IN a spirit of humility I offer these words of advice:
1 Stop Killing People
There is nothing more important than this. If republican paramilitaries truly want unity then they must stop killing people, put the guns away, and ultimately go away (you know). For as long as Protestants were being murdered for the grievous crime of not being Catholic, the idea of Irish unity was going to get nowhere.
A child could see this and now it seems that the IRA can see it too. For the republican recalcitrants - the Continuity and Real IRA - it bears repetition - your violence entrenches the status quo, it hardens Protestant hearts against unity, it is deeply counter-productive; please go way.
In the last decade, with the dramatic reduction in republican violence, there has been a thawing in Protestant attitudes to Irish nationalism, a reduction in hostility towards the south (even from the DUP) and some willingness to accept the label “Irish”. These trends will continue in the future as memories of the bad old days fade - provided those bad old days are really a thing of the past.
2. Forget About The Brits
David Ervine of the PUP used to have a routine I rather liked come years back were he would say to nationalists and republicans “If you want to speak to the British in Ireland, don’t go to the government, speak to me. Deal with me!”
For too long nationalist Ireland has been obsessed with the Brits, convinced that if only perfidious Albion would announce its intent to withdraw then all would be well. This was wrong on two counts. Firstly, as Ervine was trying to make clear, it ignored the unionist population.
Secondly, it failed to acknowledge that for at least the last thirty years the British have wanted to withdraw from NI. Our Wee Ulster is no strategic asset, as it is neither strategic nor is it an asset. NI is a drain on the British taxpayer and a stain on the country’s international reputation. Polls consistently show a majority of Britons in favour of Irish unity.
If London thought that it could leave Ireland without precipitating a bloodbath which would drag it back in, it would leave tomorrow. The British are in Ireland for only as long as a majority in the north wish them to be, this has been the stated policy for nearly fifteen years.
None of this should be misunderstood as an attempt to absolve the British of blame for partition, or for their many dark days before or since. But times have changed, it is not 1920 anymore, it’s 2005, and only a fool refuses to change.
3. Think About Unionism
Whatever the level of British determination to remain, the key problem for nationalists, as Ervine correctly realised, is not the Brits, it’s the Prods. Nationalists need to reassess their attitude towards unionism. It is not “stupid”, nor is it based on bigotry, rather, at bottom, unionism is about fear, fear of living in a state with a large Catholic majority.
Nationalist need to find a new way of speaking to unionists which recognises the historical legitimacy of their fears, rather than deriding their mentality. Unionism is not a creature of Britain, a plot by perfidious Albion using gullible Prods. It is a legitimate Irish political tradition. It is up to us as nationalists to persuade Protestants that their fears about Irish unity are unfounded.
4 Focus On Substance, Not Symbolism
It is an Irish curse to be so obsessed with symbols, one need only take a walk around Belfast at this time of year to see that. When the time comes to negotiate Irish unity, it is important that nationalists are firm on issues of substance, but flexible when it comes to less central questions.
For example, it is crucial that Irish representation at Westminster is ended, so that northern voters can turn their attention from London to Dublin. That is why unionists rightly so concerned about the current speculation that northern MPs could soon be speaking in the Dail. The issue of which parliament the citizen looks to for improvement in their daily life is crucial, it is a matter of substance.
But on other issues of less centrality, it is important to be generous. The national anthem will have to be changed since it, unlike the national flag, does not celebrate all the peoples of Ireland but rather one of its political traditions.
Furthermore, nationalists should not be scared of allowing unionists to retain some of the trappings of Britishness in a united Ireland, provided this doesn’t compromise Irish sovereignty. I see no reason why a post-unity Ireland should not continue to send men into the British army, as the sovereign state of Nepal has the Ghurkas. Likewise, there would be no harm in Ireland joining the Commonwealth.
5. Get Ready For The Last-Ditchers
Finally, a note of pessimism to end with. The government of a newly re-united Ireland will have to be prepared for some sort of insurrection by disaffected loyalist die-hards. There will be some Protestant who would rather die than live in a united Ireland, the only consolation is that their numbers can be whittled down over time.
If partition had ended in 1975, the new state would have been born in an ocean of blood. If Irish unity were to happen today, there would be a lake. Let us hope, that by the time 2020 comes around, there is only a puddle. Nevertheless, the new Irish state must be prepared to take on the last ditchers without alienating the community from which they sprung. A good idea would be to look at what the British did from 1969-72 and then do the exact opposite.
Conclusion
Some may think I’m crazy, that the idea of persuading Protestants to embrace Irish unity is a fool’s errand. But there’s only one way to prove me wrong: Try it.