In the past, Westminster elections in Northern Ireland (NI) were dull affairs. In the 1992 and 1997 polls only one or two seats changed hands. However, since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, politics in the north have entered a period of great flux. In 2001, many seats changed hands and there were tight contests in many others. Once again in 2005, there are thrilling, down-to-the-wire fights right across NI. It's going to be great craic, I'm sorry that I'll miss it.
Any time that people in NI go to the polls, there are really two elections in progress: a nationalist one and a unionist one. The fight is not between the two ideologies, but rather within them; the struggle between the SDLP and Sinn Fein for the soul of nationalism, and the struggle between the DUP and the UUP for the soul of unionism. These two distinct contests only intersect when a seat is up for grabs between the two ideologies, or when the moderates from one side try to help the moderates from the other, in order to defeat an extremist.
The over-riding context for this election is the issue of IRA activity, in particular the murder of Robert McCartney and the Northern Bank robbery. On the unionist side, the collapse in trust of the Provos will be a further boost to the DUP. On the nationalist side, the IRA's criminality may boost the SDLP very slightly but not enough to make a real difference.
Overall, I see the two extreme parties coming out of this election in a stronger position than before. If things go very badly for the moderates then both the UUP and the SDLP could experience electoral meltdown. The two most crucial contests will be Upper Bann, where Trimble is defending a narrow majority and Foyle where Mark Durkan is trying to hold the seat vacated by John Hume. If either of these men lose on May the 5th, I can't see how they can continue as leader of their party.
So, on with the predictions:
East Belfast
My native constituency looks set to return Peter Robinson to the Commons for the eighth election in a row. Not one of the more interesting races. However, look for the turnout in the Short Strand in the wake of the murder of Robert McCartney.
Prediction: DUP Hold
South Belfast
A peach of a race. In a sense this constituency has got it all: lots of Protestants, lots of Catholics, lots of poor people, lots of rich people. It's no surprise then that this one is up in the air. Last time out the SDLP were 6 000 votes short of victory, but that was against a single unionist candidate. This time both the DUP and the UUP are standing so it's impossible to know what will happen.
Spratt has made big waves in the past few weeks and, for that reason, I'm calling this one for Alasdair McDonnell. The good doctor has been beavering away for 35 years and he's finally got his chance. With both unionist parties standing, and the Shinners bickering among themselves, this is McDonnell's "perfect strom".
Prediction: SDLP Gain
West Belfast
When this seat changed hands in 1992 and again in 1997, it signified important changes in the nationalist community, with significance far beyond the streets of Andytown and Ballymurphy. This time round though, it'll be a snore-athon. Gerry to win by a landslide.
Prediction: SF Hold
North Belfast
A fascinating race in 2001, North is getting less attention this time out. Expect Doddds to coast home fairly comfortably. Given the growing Catholic population though, Kelly will be looking forward to the next contest in four years time.
Prediction: DUP Hold
Lagan Valley
Not much craic here I'm afraid, expect Donaldson to romp home, regardless of his change of brand. Further down, watch the contest between the Stoops and the Provos. The SDLP is traditionally the stronger of the two parties in unionist dominated areas, but the 2003 Assembly election suggested that this was starting to change.
Prediction: DUP Hold
Upper Bann
A crucial contest as I said earlier, but not necessarily a tight one. Trimble hung on by his fingertips last time, and his position hasn't improved since then. Only a mass desertion from the SDLP will save him now and I don't see that happening. Given that Trimble is no longer the leader of unionism, what is the nationalist incentive for saving his skin?
Prediction: DUP Gain
Newry and Armagh
After the last election, myself and party colleagues were busy drowning our sorrows in a Belfast tavern when a rumour swept the bar that Mallon had lost his seat. The mood changed from downbeat to positively suicidal. Fortunately rumours of Seamus' demise were greatly exagerated. However, he only held on by a few thousand votes. The 2003 assembly election, when Mallon didn't stand, was a disaster for the party. Given that SF have 3 MLAs and the SDLP only 1, I just can't see how Dominic Bradley can prevail.
Prediction: SF Gain
South Down
If the SDLP can't hold on here then all is truly lost. Eddie McGrady is defending a majority of 13 000. Expect Catriona Ruane to nibble into that but not enough to take the seat. It's going to be a thrilling race next time though.
Prediction: SDLP Hold
Strangford
What is one to make of the UUP's selection of the youthful Gareth McGimpsey over the old stager David McNarry? Well, there are two ways of looking at it. Either it's a bold and daring move by the UUP in Strangford to put their trust in such a young candidate. Or else, it's an admission that they haven't got a chance, so they might as well give McGimpsey a run-out. Either way, Iris is going to win comfortably.
Prediction: DUP Hold
North Down
Bob McCartney, or to give him his full name Well-Known Very Successful Lawyer Bob McCartney has decided not to stand this time which will be a boost to Peter Weir of the DUP. He will certainly gain ground against Hermon but not enough to unseat her I suspect. In these parlous times for the UUP, North Down is the closest thing they have to a safe seat.
As someone who knows the constituency well, I just can't imagine such a place sending a Paisleyite to Westminster. It's like the Alliance winning by a landslide in West Belfast. A DUP MP representing the good people of Cultra? It's enough to put one off one's golf game. Pass the gin and tonic.
Prediction: UUP Hold
East Antrim
With so much going on at the last election, this result passed almost without comment. Sammy came agonisingly close to toppling Beggs last time, just a few hundred votes short. He should take it comfortably this time.
Prediction: DUP Gain
South Antrim
McCrea and Burnside fought out two very close elections in this constituency at the turn of the century. It could well be tight again this time round. I'm giving McCrea the edge this time, simply because I believe that the DUP's vote will go up across the board. A rising tide lifts all boats, even a rickety old one.
Prediction: DUP Gain
North Antrim
The last chance for the good people of Cullybacky to send the Big Man to Westminster one would presume. Again, further down look to see how the fight between the SDLP and SF pans out.
Prediction: DUP Hold
East Derry
Gregory should win handily here so once again, look at how the nationalist parties do.
Prediction: DUP Hold
Foyle
Stalingrad part two. This is simply vital for the SDLP, much more than West Tyrone last time out, because this time the party is defending a seat. And not just any old seat, Derry is the SDLP's Vatican. The Provos have been gaining ground over the past few elections. However the SDLP came out on top in 2003 and 2004, when Hume wasn't on the ticket.
This is one of the few constituencies where the SDLP have a lot of bodies on the ground so expect a titanic struggle. The unionist vote is the X factor in this context. Will the Waterside row in behind Durkan? If it does, expect more "you only won coz of the Huns" jibes from those charming, tolerant Shinners.
Prediction: SDLP Hold
West Tyrone
This was shaping up to be an interesting race with the intervention of Kieran Deeny, the hospital candidate. However, since other parties refused to stand aside, Doherty looks safe.
Prediction: SF Hold
Mid-Ulster
Marty may feel free to continue issuing threats to grieving families as a member of parliament for another four years.
Prediction: SF Hold
Fermanagh - South Tyrone
Hmm, an intriguing one. A single unionist candidate would have been in with a great chance here, but relations between the DUP and UUP are so bad that they want to fight each other everywhere, regardless of the reprecussions. If nationalists in the constituency get even a hint that a unionist could take the seat, expect SDLP voters to defect in droves to SF.
Prediction: SF Hold
Final Tally
DUP 9 (+3)
SF 5 (+1)
SDLP 3 (-)
UUP 1 (-4)
I've tried to be objective in my predictions but I'm not objective when it comes to the future of my country, "the land of my skull". So, best of luck to all the SDLP candidates, especially those who keep going under physical duress, who never bend the knee to fascists, be they "republican" or "loyalist". I'm with you in spirit.