I've been away from Northern Ireland (NI) for ten months and as such, I'm starting to feel out of touch with political developments back home. In particular, I've been perplexed by the depth of the crisis precipitated by the IRA's robbery of 26 million pounds from a Belfast bank just before Christmas. Of course, I accept that the two governments and the other political parties in the north are right to have no faith in Sinn Fein after this robbery.
But still, isn't all the shrill rhetoric generated by the robbery missing one salient point - nobody died. Families of bank workers were taken hostage and threatened, and this is despicable, but still, it bears repetition - nobody died. There have been plenty of ceasefire violations, by both republican and loyalist paramilitaries which have left people dead.
Two weeks ago in Belfast, a 33 year-old father of two, Robert McCartney, was savagely beaten and stabbed to death by the IRA following an argument in a city centre bar. His murder was not, I suppose, a ceasefire violation sicne it was a spur-of-the-moment killing rather than a sanctioned "job". But what has happened since, with the IRA intimidating witnesses to the killing, must count as a breach of the cessation.
Yet politically speaking, it seems that Mr McCartney's murder is of less consequence than the Northern Bank robbery. The theft has eroded trust in Sinn Fein to such an extent that nobody now expects a powersharing deal to be struck this year. But, had the robbery never happened, would the murder of Mr McCartney, and the subsequent cover-up, have harmed the peace process as gravely? I think not.
It is one of NI's dirty little secrets that the IRA's ceasefire, a "total cessation" in the organisation's words, is decidedly partial in nature. The Provos have stopped attacking the army, the police and loyalists, but have retained for themselves the "right" to enforce their will on the nationalist community through punishment beatings, intimidation and, on occasion, murder. Catholic civilians remain, to use the IRA's sickening vocabulary "legitimate targets".
Had Mr. McCartney been a loyalist paramilitary, then his murder would certainly have sparked a crisis in the peace process since it would have necessitated "retaliation". But because he was a law-abiding Catholic, the peace process, that wonderfully morally ambiguous beast, can live with his death.
There is something amiss morally if the theft of money creates a bigger crisis in the peace process than the theft of life.
However, the electoral outcome of these two events, the robbery and the murder, could turn out quite differently. In all the comment I read about the Northern Bank robbery, the most astute quote was from a republican in west Belfast, reflecting on the likely electoral fallout for Sinn Fein: "Do you think anyone round here's not going to vote for us because of this?", he enquired.
Here for me was the crux of the matter. The robbery had made Sinn Fein about as popular as a fart in a crowded lift with the two governments, the other parties and the media. But where it really mattered, on the ground, the party was not going to be hurt electorally by the theft. In my opinion, Sinn Fein voters don't much care that the Northern Bank got done over. Some may disapprove of the theft, but like the republican quoted above implied, I don't see them staying home on polling day in protest.
By contrast the McCartney murder, and the attendant intimidation of witnesses, could be much more damaging for Sinn Fein's electoral fortunes. The large turnout for Mr McCartney's funeral and for a vigil in his memory are testament to the depth of disgust within the nationalist community over this senseless killing.
The peace process may be able to live with Robert McCartney's gruesome death, but some Sinn Fein voters may not.