By: O G San Posted: Monday, January 03, 2005 on Anger is an emotion too Message Board: International Prediction, like alcohol, makes fools of us all, so here goes: 1. Iraq The elections will be held in most of the country and then guess what? The violence will go on. The country will descend even deeper into anarchy and despair.

Your opinion only. Not fact.

2. Palestine Now for the good news. Sorry, I shouldn't be joking at a time like this. Mahmoud Abbas will be elected Palestinian president and peace talks will start. They will then promptly flounder for one basic reason: the Israelis have no intention of leaving the West Bank. Not today, not tomorrow, not as long as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Hence, no peace.

Again only your opinion. Not fact.
Opinions are like butt-holes, they *all* smell funny. Both yours AND mine.

Your opinion only. Not fact.

well, yea, that's what a blog is, right? opinions?

It's election time "across the water" this year too. It seems highly likely that Blair, running on an "I'm a liar but I'm not a Tory" platform will win a third term with ease.

I understand your disdain, but who would you rather have?

In these elections, the UUP and the SDLP will lose yet more ground to the DUP and Sinn Fein

They will then promptly flounder for one basic reason: the Israelis have no intention of leaving the West Bank. Not today, not tomorrow, not as long as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Hence, no peace.

Wow, you are full of hope for 2005--how depressing!

drmiller,

As shades points out, this is my blog where I put up my opinions. I'm not the BBC.

And of course my PREDICTIONS are not facts because I'm speculating about the future.

shades,

The best I could hope for in terms of British politics is a palace coup which leads to Gordon Brown becoming PM.

This would also have the added benefit that Brown, who is quite ferociously competent, would no longer be chancellor. Some joker would be put in charge of the economy and the value of the pound would fall. Then my earnings in Korean won would be worth more back home

Pah, you and your England-centrism, we have 6 main parties I'll have you know and the Tories are lucky to come in 4th. Ok, means nothing South of Berwick, but hey.

England is too much a party system for Tony to be defeated. In the UK people vote for the party more than the individual, so while many feel that Tony is a liar and should not be prime minister they still like Labour more than the Conservatives. I too would hope for a shift in support towards the liberals. I expect labour to lose quite a lot of seats as many labour voters in the last election did just vote for Tony. They may switch votes back to the conservatives. I would hope that the Liberals take seats from labour as well as the conservatives though. This could finally turn the UK into a proper multi party system where coalitions are likely and hence politicians need to stick to their promised or lose power. Single party government in the UK has led to complete lack of trust of government as they seldom need to worry about the public and use the party whip frequently to force all MPs to vote in line. The first past the post electoral system really sucks.

As for the other predictions, I also expect Northern Ireland peace to remain steady and advance further after the next set of elections. The fact that the politicians got as far as argueing over pictures and trust as oppossed to the actual details is amazing. Everyone wants peace, everyone agrees on what's needed. Just the fine details of making sure that what's needed is seen to be done.

On the middle East front I would not be as pessimistic. I think Israel will pull out of Gaza and some semblence of self government will act like a carrot to the Palestinians. I don't believe a long term solution will be reached, but an agreement to negotiate towards one may happen. I suspect that you are right though in you suspicion that Israel has no intention of ever leaving parts of the West bank no matter what pease or security is offerred. It's a land grab and one that may block long term peace for decades to come.

In Iraq I suspect the elections will proceed with plenty of violence. Violence will probably also continue right through the year, but I expect the new governmnet will od it's job of writing a new constitution with final elections and authority transfer in early 2006. Whether this will occur under more peaceful conditions than present is beyond my guess.

Paul.

I don't know how to do quotes.... But, if you're interested, some wacky suggestions:

Yes, America will want to pull out of Iraq, but leaving it in a worse state than they found it will be noticed by even the most blinkered Republicans. The US wants international support in Iraq... and Europe will give it. However, they'll (hopefully) have their sensible heads on and make America pay a price - putting pressure on Israel to stop building settlements / start withdrawing settlers in the West Bank. At least, that is what they could do. Having whoever is elected in Iraq ask for the international community to help them in security may save blushes from anti-war Europeans, not wanting to go to Iraq at the behest of the Americans.

Europe is always talking about the plight of the Palestinians, but never puts its money where its mouth is. Having this quid pro quo opportunity to make Bush lean on Sharon, hard, might actually make a difference. But it is too difficult to be optimistic about anything in this region. At least people are now linking the insurgency in Iraq and the Palestinian problem. It's a small first step but an important one.

Re the rise of the Lib Dems in the UK - they'll gain, of course. But not massively, and not at the Conservatives' expense. The Tories are feeling a bit shit recently, as Howard has proved to be a muppet who supported Blair on issues like the war, and now can't criticise his actions, and the thunder has been stolen over immigration; but the ban on hunting has been a big deal and people will come out. So the Tories will stay roughly the same. Labour's biggest problem will be the apathy of their members and traditional support base, rather than people rushing to support a different party. The Labour left will have a problem with voting Lib Dem as it's not going to affect the overall result. President Blair, soon to be in charge of Europe and the G8, and wanting to sort out the chassis in the world, isn't thinking domestically at all. He knows he's going to get back in, and that's pretty much all the thought he's giving it.

Northern Ireland is screwed, thanks to the stunning choreography before Christmas Both extremes have something to feel aggrieved about, lack of transparency or trust, despite a year's 'careful' planning. As if it was all derailed at the last minute. That's bollocks - it's been the DUP's plan all along to stick the photo request in, becuase it makes them look hard, and it suits the Shinners as it makes them look like they were genuinely negotiating and the others didn't play fair - it's good to be a MOPE. It also suits Tony to look like the hard done by peace negotiator than the liar we've come to recognise. The Northern Irish people thoroughly confused / bored / not really paying attention, will perceive that a deal was nearly achieved, and that's better than when all those wishy washy liberals were involved. The wishy washy liberals, once the silent majority, will be praying for direct rule as the lesser evil than rule from the extremes.

Thanks, Rachel.

Regarding your point about leaning on Sharon, the sad fact is that even if he wanted to withdraw from the West Bank (which he most definitely does not), he couldn't do it. There's a price for Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and that price is civil war.

Yitzhak Rabin started a process which may have led to some settlements being abanoned. We all know what happened to him.

too bad there wont be a late 2005 us election. 

What do you think the ramifications of the IRA involvement in the Northern Bank robbery will have on Sinn Fein's votes? the people in power seem to be talking the talk of removing them from the process, what do you reckon the result of that would be, or if they stay in? I have to say I am torn between dialogue being the only way to solve the problem but also it is a bit galling to have the thought that people involved are not commiting to it in the way they should.

It would be nice to see the UUP and SDLP claw back a bit more of their support that was given the more "extreme" parties but, having said that, there was a good deal of movement in the last 6 months or so (Big Ian having tea with Bertie!? Something that I would have not believed possible not that long ago) even if it was ultimately fruitless.