Year-end obituaries tend to suggest some commomn thread running through the twelve months in question. There is supposed to be a theme, 2004: The Year Of X. But this is a conceit. 2004 was not the year of X, or Y, or even Z. It was just a period of time. In this past twelve months new trends became apparent, established trends continued and old trends faded away. People lived and died, laughed and cried as they do every other year.
With this in mind, I will eschew all narrative in my humble recollection piece for the year which has just passed. Instead I give you a some random thoughts on what the last year brought.
**********
I have to start with Iraq which was the story of 2004, as it was for 2003. I'm beginning to think that the war currently raging in the Middle East could come to define this decade as well.
In 2004 the situation in Iraq deteriorated steadily from terrible to hellish. The Americans turned so many corners that they ended up going in circles, foreign companies pulled out, "coalition" members made their excuses and left and the appaling spate of beheadings intensified. But most of all, usually hidden from the view of Western media, Iraqis went on dying, day after day after day.
There is simply no end in sight to the terrible human tragedy. The word "clusterfuck" could have been coined for this monumental imperialist folly. How much longer beofre those reponsible are held to account?
**********
For better or for worse (worse) George W Bush was man of the year for 2004. His re-election as US president was a profound setback for all of us who would like to have a world to live in when we're old.
At least during his first term, when I saw him on TV mis-pronouncing "nuclear" or trying to explain why Donald Trump needed a tax cut, I could comfort myself with the thought that a majority of US voters had wanted someone else to lead them. Now even this small comfort has been removed. Loathe him or despise him, Dubya is now the legitimate leader of the world's only superpower.
The interesting question for the future is whether that collection of worthless "me too-ers" known as the Democratic party can get their act together for 2008. Or 2012. Or 2016. Perhaps in the post 9-11 world US voters will always plump for the Republican candidate because he will always be the one who is seen as being tougher on "turr".
**********
A rare piece of good news this past year was Venezualan President Hugo Chavez's defeat of a CIA-backed recall effort. With the coup in 2002, the general strike in 2003 and then the recall all having failed, perhaps now the opposition forces in Venezuala can do something constructive - like finding a candidate for the presidential election in 2006 who people actually like.
In the meantime, it is heartening to know that anti-IMF leaders are in power, not just in Venzuala, but also in Brazil and Argentina. For the sake of my own mental health, I cling to encouraging signs like these.
**********
Like many people who see themselves as pro-Palestinian, the death of Yasser Arafat this past year left me with very mixed feelings. On the one hand, he was a sort of constant in my life. For as long as I've been interested in the conflict, and indeed for long before I was born, Arafat was Palestine. There is, if nothing else, a sense of an era having passed. But still I can't ignore the fact that Arafat was a deeply flawed leader who signed a quite disastrous "peace" deal with the Israelis in 1993 to save his own skin.
With Yasser now gone some, like Tony Blair, have spoken of a "window of opportunity" for peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Would that this were so. Those who speak in such a way place too much importance on the personalities of those at the top. The conflict in the Holy Land is not caused by this leader or that leader, but rather by the occupation of one people by another. Until the occupiers show they intend to leave, there isn't so much as a cat-flap of opportunity for peace, let alone a window.
**********
Oil prices surged this autumn, up and over the 50 US dollar mark, the latest of many "psychological barriers". Commentators blamed many factors for the spike in prices: the Yukos controversy, violence in Saudi Arabia, unrest in Iraq and Venezuala. But it seems to me that this misses the point. All of these factors, however important, are essentially short-term (yes, even Iraq). The truly worrying factor is this: the world's two most populous countries, India and China, are growing at quite dizzying speed. Hence oli reserves are being run down at an ever greater pace. The economic rise of Asia makes it even more urgent that an alternative is found to exhaustible froms of energy. In the meantime, expect more "blood for oil" as the fuel runs out.
**********
Finally, I want to acknowledge that the Grim Reaper took away some of our best and brightest this year.
Farewell then to Joe Cahill, leader of the IRA at the height of the Troubles, taken from us far too soon at the age of 83.
So long and thanks for the memories, Rafael Eitan, commander of Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982 which left 20 000 dead, swept out to sea at the tender age of 75.
Rest in peace, Ronald Reagan, fondly remembered in Latin America, a life cut short at 93.
Interestingly, 2004 also marked the tenth anniversary of the death of US comedian Bill Hicks, who passed away at the ripe old age of 32.
For those of you who can't see where I'm going with this, I have four simple words: There is no God.
And on that upbeat note, Happy New Year!!!