It’s a truism of Northern Irish politics that, whenever the political process breaks down, the paramilitaries step in to fill the vacuum. With this in mind, it has been a pleasant surprise that the current impasse has not been accompanied by the rattle of paramilitary guns. Ten people were killed by paramilitaries last year. That’s ten too many but, compared to other peace process years, the number is low. Intimidation and punishment attacks continue as ever but no group has tried to “take the war” to the other side.

The roadblock following November’s election results shows no sign of shifting. With the DUP and Sinn Fein as the two biggest parties it’s only fair that they should take the posts of First Minister and Deputy First Minister respectively. This seems impossible as long as Paisley is in the land of the living. The Big Man has stated unequivocally that his party won’t even speak to Sinn Fein until the IRA is wound up, a concession which republicans can’t give. Meanwhile the SDLP and the UUP, supposedly the bulwarks of the process, have been relegated to the second rank.

Negotiations between the parties and the two governments will dribble on all year getting nowhere. Is this good enough to keep the (relative) peace? Time will tell. We are only one gunshot away from crisis. I honestly believe that the Northern Ireland in which I grew up, where a hundred people were killed each year, is gone forever. But there is always the possibility that we could return to those dark days. For this reason all political actors need to show flexibility in the year ahead. The best response to continuing paramilitarism is not tougher security or “appeasement” but rather a properly functioning political system in the North.