Blair can still be toppled
As someone who thinks of himself as left of centre, I naturally hope that this week's European elections see a large number of members returned to Strasbourg under the umbrella of the Party of European Socialists (PES). I certainly hope that one of these new MEPs has a Belfast accent. But strangely, I also hope that as few as possible of the PES' MEPs are members of the British Labour Party. It is sad but true that a meltdown in suport for the Labour Party in this week's poll could actually be a good thing for the left.
It's often said that Tony Blair's evangelical support for the US invasion of Iraq sets him at odds with his own party, or at odds with the British people, or at odds with other European governments. It's less often remarked that he is also at odds with the left to which he, at least titularly, still belongs. All the other pro-war leaders - Bush, Howard, Berlusconi, Aznar - are unmistakably men of the right. No other leftist party in Europe, of which I'm aware, supports this war.
I happily admit that I'm furious with Blair for going along with Bush into the mess in Iraq. As such, I've looked forward to his political demise for quite some time now. I had hoped that the tuition fees vote and the publication of the Hutton report on consecutive days in January would do for him. One aborted rebelion and one whitewash later, Blair was still standing, if anything looking stronger than before.
Since then, I've viewed the European elections as the last chance for his party to dump him before the general election, which will probably be held next year. Today's vote is the first opportunity for the British people to give their verdict on Blair's adventurism. I hope as few as possible of them vote for the Labour party.
I'm not motivated by any natural animosity towards the party itself. In the course of its history, it has achieved many laudable things. Most of its members are thoroughly decent people who want exactly the same thing that I want - a better world. But none of this changes the political dynamic of the moment. Whether you like it or not, a vote for Labour, is a vote for Blair, is a vote for the war in Iraq. This is grossly unfair on the many Labour party candidates who are as vociferously anti-war as anyone. But the fact remains that Blair will portray each and every Labour vote as an endorsement of his aggression in the Middle East.
Only a serious drop in Labour's support, and I mean a meltdown, can bring a change at the top with a general election so close. There have been rumblings against Blair within his own party for a long time now. But with the Chancellor Gordon Brown unwilling to make a lunge for the crown, the party needs a severe jolt if it is to dump Blair.
Labour needs to be presented with unambiguous evidence that its vote-winnning leader of yesteryear has become a liability since he threw in his lot with the neo-con cabal in Washington. For a leadership challenge to occur, there has to be a large increase in support today for the anti-war forces in British politics: the Lib Dems, the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the sundry elements of the far left.
Have no doubt, deposing a prime minister this close to a general election would be a high-risk move. Only the strongest impetus will bring this about.