The century which ended a few years ago is often refered to as "the American century". For those who speak of the twentieth century in this way, the great narrative of that time was the emergence of the US from being a minor player in 1900 to a position of unquestioned supremacy over the world by the 1990s; standing head and shoulders above Germany, France, Russia and Britain, in whose shadows it once dwelt.
This is true but still, if a film were to be made of the past century which could only be filmed in one continent, which one would be chosen? For me, there is no other choice but Europe. It was in Europe that the three defining wars of that century were fought, Europe where the revolutions of 1917 and 1989 took place, Europe where all the great "isms": communism, fascism, colonialism, totalitarianism and nationalism emerged. While it is true that the twentieth century was about the rise of American power, it was about the rise of American power in relation to Europe. The US knew it was the new top dog when it could look down on the great European powers, not when it rose above China or Japan.
The deabte has already begun as to how this century will be remembered: as a second American century, a Chinese century, even an Indian century. In any case, it seems certain that the film of the twenty-first century will not be set in Europe. Having dominated global affairs for the past five hundred years, the old continent seems set to take a back seat in the future.
As Samuel Huntingdon spells out in his book "The Clash of Civilizations", the two great conflicts of this century will not involve Europe directly. The first of these struggles, which we see played out on our TV screens every day, is between the US and the Muslim world. This is, in my view, a clash of ideas as much as a struggle for oil.
Both see their way of life, their system of thought, as inherently superior to all others and thus universally applicable. The conflict is fuelled not just by America's need for Middle East oil, but also by low self-esteem within global Islam. Many Muslims are convinced of the superiority of their religion and their culture. Yet they are confronted each and every day by evidence to the contrary - the poverty and repressiveness of many Muslim regimes, the inability to defeat Israel, the failure to mobilise to protect Iraq before the invasion.
For some Islamic groups, the reaction to all this is to attack the US, not just because of American aggresion, but because the US is the main man. For some, Islamic self-esteem would sky-rocket if they could bring the big guy down to size. For as long as the US economy needs oil and the US polity wishes to support Israel, the conflict with Islam, or rather with parts of Islam, will continue.
The other great struggle of this century wiil be between the US and the emerging economies of East Asia, in particular China. This conflict will in all probability be less violent than that between the US and the Islamic world, but no less important.
The emergence of the Pacific Rim as a major economic power has been evident for at least the past forty years. Japan is lready the second largest economy in the world. Smaller Tigers, like Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong, already wield power far out of proportion with their size.
Yet East Asia always remained marginal as long as its largest country, China, was trapped in the legacy of Mao Tse-Tung's idiosyncratic rule. In the past ten years the government of the People's Republic has finally manged to make China what it should have been all along: a major economic power.
China's ever-growing economic might is a challenge to all those around it. The day may very soon come when China dominates its side of the Pacific as effortlessly as the US dominates its. Nevertheless, China's emergence as an economic power will lift the whole of East Asia into a position of previoulsy unknown global importance.
If East Asia, led by China, does eventually over-take the US, the crucial question is, how will America react as its overshadowing approaches? Will it make some last stand against an Asian dominated world, perhaps by going to war? Or wi;l it, as Britain did last century, accept that its days as global leader are over and make the best of a bad job?
These two conflicts will of course impact those continents which are not directly involved - South America, Africa and Europe. They too will play their parts in the global narrative, but in supporting roles. For South America and Africa, used to being the world's extras, this is nothing new. But Europe is accustomed to being in the limelight.
I don't think that many Europeans will mind that their continent has moved from centre stage. It may be exciting to be at the heart of great world events but, at a human level, wars and revolutions aren't much fun. Europe, like an old man who's seen too much, is content to put its feet up and let the kids run around.
This is only partly a metaphor. Compared to the rest of the world, Europeans are old. The population lacks the youthful vigour of East Asia, the Islamic world and, to a lesser extent, the US. Even if we did wish to re-colonise the rest of the world, would we have enough young people to do it? After all, slaughtering natives is a young man's game.
But most Europeans have no desire to do any such thing. Having lived under madness of both the left and the right, it is entirely understandable that Europeans have embraced the dull managerialism of the European Union (EU). This project, to meld together a hugely diverse collection of peoples and states is a unique experiment in the history of humanity. By rights it should be the most exciting thing in the world. Instead, the EU, in its daily machinations, its technocratic jargon and its endless summits is unspeakably dull.
Maybe this is no bad thing. Europe could do with a dull century. No more wars, no more revolutions, no more ideologies which claim to be the way, the truth and the light. Instead just boring old managed capitlaism, more co-operation, more integration, more understanding. No more great debates, just haggling over the details.
Other places can dominate world events all they want. Europe is tired.