There’s a queue outside the European Union, the most exclusive club in town. For the past ten years Poland, Hungary et al have stood outside patiently waiting to be let in. Very soon, the doorman will stand aside and ten Central and Eastern European states will shuffle in the door. Further back in line, the likes of Croatia have been promised they’ll be let in soon, despite fighting in line.
Right at the front of the queue stands a lone figure, increasingly depressed and angry. Turkey has been waiting in line longer than anyone else, since long before the Warsaw Pact club across the road fell down. Yet Turkey has watched forlornly as others behind it in line have breezed past. Each time Turkey asks to be let in the answer is the same: “Sorry, you’re not getting in, try again in a few years.” It’s beginning to dawn on Turkey that it might be standing out in the cold forever. Maybe it’s time to go to another club.
I can’t decide what to think on the issue of Turkish accession to the EU. On one level the idea of Turkey joining the EU is absurd. Only a tiny sliver of Turkey is geographically part of Europe. Historically Europeans have looked on Turks as their foe, the Muslim hordes massed at the gates of civilisation. Turkey was Europe’s “other” long before the Middle East, the Soviet Union or the United States. It was what Europeans weren’t, in Europe but not of it. For Turkey to join the European Union makes about as much sense as Greece joining the Arab League.
Politely, we might refer to this a “cultural” difference. More honestly, we should admit that it’s about religion. In spite of the high level of secularism and atheism in modern Europe, the continent has a Christian heritage and value system into which Turkey does not fit. The EU hotly denies Turkish allegations that it is a “Christian club” but the criticism rings true. Whether we like it or not, the religion of the vast majority of Turks, is an issue.
Of course, it’s hard to admit this. New Europeans, full of peace and tolerance, aren’t the sort of people to put up a sign saying “No Muslims”. Clearly a more wholesome excuse is necessary. So out comes that hardy stand-by “human rights”, your all purpose excuse for any course of action. Turkey, you see, can’t be allowed in because it oppresses the Kurds, tortures prisoners, denies the Armenian genocide etc. Ah, much better! Now instead of feeling like bigots, we can feel positively virtuous. We’re defending the Kurds. Marvellous!
On a less noble level we have the inter-connected issues of poverty and immigration. Even by the standards of Eastern Europe, Turkey is poor. To drag the country up will take billions of euros (German taxpayer, I’m looking at you) and years of effort. In the meantime Turks will have the right to live and work anywhere in the EU. You don’t have to be clairvoyant to predict that large numbers of poor, ambitious Turks will move west.
On a human level, one can’t help but say “good luck” to these economic migrants as they struggle to make a better life for themselves. On a practical level though, leaving aside all considerations of race, there are only so many immigrants that densely-populated countries like England, Holland and Germany can take. Large-scale Turkish immigration would be a major problem, and acknowledging this reality doesn’t make one racist.
The size of Turkey also presents organisational challenges. With over sixty million citizens, Turkey is larger than any EU country bar Germany. If demographic trends continue, Turkey’s population will soon out-strip Germany’s. In spite of its economic weakness, Turkey’s size and location mean that it will be a major player in the Union.
Current members are reluctant to admit a new member so large and so different, fearing it could be a recipe for paralysis. Perhaps the real issue is not Islam by itself but Islam and size. Many EU citizens and leaders fear the impact of having a large Muslim state in the EU. If Turkey were a small Muslim country, like Albania, then its accession would be much less problematic.
Having said all this, there are also powerful reasons why Turkey should become a member. For Turks membership would certainly lead to an improvement in their economic conditions, just look at Spain or Ireland. Turkey inside the EU would be a more tolerant and humane society than it is at present. Its military would finally be brought to heel. The prospect of an Islamic revolution would become unimaginable. Without sounding too much like a cultural imperialist, a European Turkey would be good for Turks themselves.
It could also be good for other Europeans to have Turkey firmly inside our big tent, stable and humane. By working with the west without being subsumed by it, Turkey could provide a valuable model for other Islamic states, particularly in the Middle East. The presence of such an important Muslim state in an otherwise Christian grouping would be one in the eye for the “Clash of Civilisations” types, be they Samuel Huntingdon or Osama bin Laden. Those who seek to divide the world into Islamic and non-Islamic would suffer a major reverse.
As I said earlier, I don’t know where to come down on this issue. I can see good reasons for and against. Either way though, the EU must make up its mind. By holding out the prospect of membership the Union has won concessions from the Turks such as an end to state torture and the setting up of a Kurdish language TV station. At the same time the EU keeps putting back the date for beginning accession talks.
In this way Turkey is made to act more like a “good European” without getting any closer to joining the EU. In the short-term this tactic is useful but it can’t be a long-term strategy. Turkey can’t be strung along forever. Either the answer is “yes”, and the EU has a lot of work to do, or it’s “no” in which case we have one mightily pissed-off Turkey on our hands. A tilt to the East would be entirely understandable in these circumstances.