But I think it was al-Qaida
When I heard of the bomb attacks in Madrid yesterday morning, there were 30 confirmed deaths. On hearing this news, my immediate reaction was: “ETA”. Thirty killed in one day would be a huge number by the standards of the Basque separatists, a “successful operation” in their own sick minds.
When I learned more details of the attacks I realised my immediate assumption may have been mistaken. Thirty, I soon discovered, was not the final death toll but only the preliminary count. The number of dead quickly doubled to 60, then doubled again to 120, climbing inexorably towards 200 by day’s end. If this was the work of ETA then it wasn’t just their largest ever attack, it was ridiculously out of proportion with anything they’d ever done before.
In spite of the unprecedented severity of the attack, by early afternoon senior Spanish officials were explicitly blaming the Basque group. Could it really be ETA? Ten co-ordinated explosions? No warnings at all? This combination of technical sophistication and total disregard for human life smacked more of al-Qaida than ETA.
More than 24 hours after the blasts it’s still unclear who was to blame. My suspicion is that, given the sheer savagery of the attack, this is the work of Bin Laden’s group. Of course ETA have killed innocents before but never on such a scale. If it was ETA then it will be a massive “own goal” for them, bringing down a merciless Spanish response on their heads. Such is the level of outrage at this atrocity that ETA’s support will evaporate. It would take a severely hard-line Basque nationalist to stand up and defend yesterday’s bombings.
For this reason, I believe that this attack was the work of a group which feels no constraints when it comes to taking human life, a group without a political party or a PR department, a group which feels no need for the fig-leaf of a bomb warning. A group, in other words, like al-Qaida.
If it does turn out to be Bin Laden then the prospects are truly terrifying. It will be the first attack on Western soil since 9-11. In spite of thirty months of the war on terror, al-Qaida will have shown the capacity to wreak bloody murder on the streets of a European capital. It doesn’t take a genius to work out that Rome, Paris, Berlin, London et al could be next.
That’s why I hope it’s ETA, though increasingly I suspect it’s not. If it is ETA then this will be a purely Spanish tragedy. No Basque nationalist is going to blow up Edinburgh or Munich in order to win independence for their homeland. If it’s al-Qaida though, all of Western Europe is at risk. I know it’s not a nice thing to say but, the fact is if ETA did commit this atrocity, it will be a relief to many of us in the West.
One final thought. As I was watching the horrific scenes in Madrid yesterday I happened to glance out the window. Here in Belfast, the European city most closely associated with terrorism, the sun was shining and a woman was walking her dog without a care in the world. I was struck by just how peaceful my city now is. Of course some violence continues (and must stop) but generally things here are calm.
I certainly can’t imagine the horrible events in Madrid being repeated on Belfast’s streets. I don’t believe that “our” paramilitaries would countenance such an act. I can’t see why any Islamist group would want to attack thus little backwater.
The same can’t be said of other cities across Europe whose citizens now fear the worst. How ironic that the rest of the continent should live with the fear which was once Belfast’s alone while we now feel safe. Belfast’s past…Madrid’s present…Europe’s future?