Where memories are longer
Absent from most of the coverage of the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election result was any analysis of what it meant for Britain’s newest political leader, David Cameron of the Conservative party.
Here in the UK, Mr Cameron’s every utterance and gesture is greeted by gushing press coverage from a media infatuated with its latest plaything. Aged just 39 and presentable enough, Dave, as his followers know him, seems to lead a Conservative party finally able to win back power so decisively taken from it in 1997.
The media fawns over his many pronouncements, his commissions for this and that, his marvellously non-judgemental, inclusive language. They marvel at his swift policy changes which transform yesterday’s sacred cow into today’s sacrificial lamb. They gasp as he goes to watch Brokeback Mountain (how wonderfully tolerant). They ooh and aah like teenage girls as he is voted the 92nd sexiest man on the planet (depressing news for straight women everywhere I would humbly suggest).
But the bad news for Mr Cameron is that the public aren’t buying it. Outside of Westminster Village, the new Conservative leader faces a sceptical, hostile electorate. Running against an unpopular and divided ruling party, the Tories performance in Dunfermline and West Fife was abysmal. The Conservative share of the vote in the constituency dropped 2.5% to a mighty 7.8%. Such an awful showing in the Conservatives’ first electoral test AD (After Dave) suggest two things.
Firstly, for all that the Tories remain Britain’s second party, in large parts of the country they are nowhere. Most of the area north of Watford remains hostile territory for anyone with a blue rosette.
Secondly, the news from Dunfermline indicates that the hype over Cameron’s new "compassionate Conservatism" may well be misplaced. Granted, the constituency is not natural Tory territory, but still you would expect the party’s share of the vote to have gone up rather than down if Mr Cameron is so appealing.
I’m reminded here of the unusually positive reception given to Mr Cameron’s predecessor Michael Howard when he assumed the poisoned chalice in 2003. Given a fair wind by a previously hostile press, the former Home Secretary proved unable to turn this into strong performances at any by-elections. And of course, Howard’s lack of appeal was confirmed at last year’s general election when the party’s share of the vote remained almost static.
The new Tory leader needs no reminding of how bad the 2005 result was for his party, as he was a central figure in that campaign. In fact, it was David Cameron who wrote the party’s manifesto, surely the nastiest put before the British people in many a long day, pandering to the xenophobia of the party’s base. And yet it is the same David Cameron who now claims to lead a party which is at ease with the multi-cultural 21st-century Britain.
By accepting this Damascene conversion, significant parts of the British media have displayed long-term memory skills to rival those of a goldfish. However, the good news is that voters seem a lot more sceptical. Dunfermline and West Fife is just one by-election but nevertheless it suggest that Mr Cameron will have to do a lot more to convince the electorate that his party is once again worthy of office.
Part of the Conservative leader’s problem is that he is trying to persuade voters that his party has changed overnight, from a sect obsessed with asylum seekers and perfidious Brussels, to a group of chilled-out metrosexuals. Comparisons are often made with New Labour, but this misses the point that Tony Blair’s re-branding was only the culmination of a long period of reform. There were 11 years of change within the Labour party between the "longest suicide not in history" and the death of John Smith in 1994.
The Tories by contrast have spent their nine years in opposition veering between right and centre. William Hague started out in 1997 making all the right cuddly noises before dashing to the Attila the Hun tendency. Iain Duncan-Smith was at least consistently lunatic, though to such an extent that even his own party concluded that he could never win a general election. So in came Howard, who again made some centrist noises before sprinting to the right. And now we have yet another Conservative leader portraying himself as "inclusive". You will forgive me the slightest scepticism.
All the hoopla over the stylistic tricks of an ex-PR man can not disguise the fact that image is not enough. The Conservatives can not get back to power until they can convince the British public that they are once again fit to look after the economy. All the makeovers in the world are not going to achieve this.
On Black Wednesday 1992, the Tory government pissed away Britain’s foreign currency reserves like a sailor on shore leave (a debacle for which Mr Cameron had a front-row seat). From that day, the Conservatives lost their most precious electoral asset - economic competence. Black Wednesday was so calamitous that it made a Labour election victory almost inevitable, regardless of Blairism.
In the past, the Tory message was essentially: "Yes, we’re nasty bastards, but we’re the only people you can trust with your money." Once this reputation for sound economic custodianship was lost, there was nothing left but the nastiness. Simply appearing nice, without re-establishing basic financial competency will not gain Mr Cameron the keys to 10 Downing Street.