Any hawks out there feel like admitting they were wrong?
It’s nearly a year since American tanks began rolling across the Iraq – Kuwait border. The first anniversary of an event is a common juncture to indulge in a little reflection. My intention in writing this blog is both to reflect and to challenge. Specifically, I want to challenge the hawks to defend their war with the benefit of hindsight. Are you proud of your conflict? Do you still think it was right?
It’s my belief that the anti-war camp has essentially been vindicated by the course of events over the past twelve months. However not every prediction we made has turned out to be accurate so, for the sake of balance, I will begin by outlining where I think we went wrong.
The invasion of Iraq has not (yet) led to wider instability in the Middle East. No Arab regime has been toppled by Islamist opposition forces as some claimed would happen if America invaded Iraq. The war has not, as Amr Moussa memorably predicted, “opened the gates of hell”. Of course this could still happen if Iraq descends into civil war. For the time being though, the Arab street has proven yet again to be a paper tiger.
Neither has the Iraq war led to a wider conflagration between the West and the Middle East. If as Hosni Mubarak warned, the conflict creates “a thousand bin Ladens” then we in the west are yet to hear from them. Al-Qaida may well have recruited new members because of the war but it has not been able to use this new strength to attack “coalition” cities.
On most other matters though, the peace camp has been vindicated. Reconstructing Iraq has not been the cakewalk which the Pentagon claimed. Iraqi oil revenue has not been sufficient to get the country back on its feet as Paul Wolfowitz predicted. American troops were greeted not with flowers but with bullets. The “coalition” forces are seen as occupiers not liberators. Iraq teeters on the brink of all-out civil war following last week’s huge bombings. Only the admirable moderation of Shia leaders seems to be holding the country together.
Most of all the left has been vindicated by the failure of America to find WMD. Peace protestors always claimed that WMD was a fake casus belli concocted by an administration hell-bent on toppling Saddam. It’s still possible that some WMD will be found though, with each passing day, this becomes less likely. Even if some weapons are found somewhere in Iraq, it’s clear that the massive programmes of WMD which Washington alleged Saddam was running simply weren’t there. How ironic that the US, which wouldn’t give Hans Blix the “weeks, not months” he wanted to complete his task, now begs for more time to find WMD.
The web of lies, so carefully spun, is now falling apart. Some claims, like the 45 minute attack and Niger plutonium, have already been so thoroughly discredited that not even the most red-in-tooth-and-claw hawk now defends them. Other allegations will soon be just as thoroughly disproved. As their lies are exposed, the belligerents have resorted to ever more laughable excuses for their failure to find WMD. Any takers for: “Iraqi generals destroyed the WMD but they were too scared to tell Saddam”? No? Don’t worry; there’ll be another fairytale along soon.
Some hawks have at least had the good grace to admit that they were wrong. “OK, so we lied but we liberated Iraq so all’s well that ends well” is their attitude. This position at least has some credibility. Others though, particularly the contemptible Blair, can never admit the truth without simultaneously admitting that they lied to press their people into war. The day Blair admits that he lied would also have to be the day that he resigns.
Given the gravity of their crimes, it is a disgrace that both Bush and Blair are still in power. They pushed relentlessly for a war of aggression on false premises. They marched their people into war with talk of mushroom clouds and vials of anthrax. Thousands have died because of their belligerence. Tens of thousands have been wounded. This will forever be on their heads.
As I said at the start, I’m writing this blog to challenge not to reflect. So I want to finish by asking the remaining unrepentant hawks a few questions. If you knew then what you know now, would you still have backed the war? If you knew that 45 minutes, mushroom clouds, Niger, Saddam working with al-Qaida were all myths; would you still support the conflict? And if you really believed all the pre-war propaganda, do you feel like a sucker?